Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 020125
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020125
IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-020300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0181
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0825 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN IA...ERN/SRN NEB...AND N-CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 15...

VALID 020125Z - 020300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 15
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE PRIMARY THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WW 15 OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS DEPICT A QUASI-LINEAR STRUCTURE TO
THE CONVECTION THAT HAS FORMED ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS NWRN IA AND
ERN NEB. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THIS
AREA...MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG ESTIMATED BY THE 01Z RAP MESOANALYSIS
SEEMS GENEROUS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM OAX SHOWS A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER...WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CENTERED AROUND
700 MB...AND MLCAPE AROUND 350 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF WW 15 HAVE STRUGGLED IN THIS MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...AND OUTFLOW FROM THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS SURGED
AHEAD OF THE LINE...WHICH SUGGESTS THE WIND THREAT MAY BE LESSENED
ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE. A SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
EXISTS ACROSS S-CNTRL NEB/N-CNTRL KS WHERE A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS SW OF HASTINGS NEB MOVING NEWD AHEAD OF THE COLD
REMAINS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM.

..GLEASON.. 04/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   39269838 39229903 39649935 40559928 41729744 43179549
            43249489 43239439 42249434 41509471 40779584 39609681
            39369770 39269838



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