Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 011739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011739
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-012015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0175
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NWRN AR...SWRN MO AND SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 011739Z - 012015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY UNDERGO A SLOW BUT GRADUAL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM ERN OK INTO NWRN AR...SWRN MO AND
SERN KS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
TIMING REGARDING IF AND WHEN STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE IS
UNCERTAIN...AND ANY WW ISSUANCE WILL DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN MS
INTO NCNTRL AND NWRN AR THEN WWD THROUGH SRN KS. DESTABILIZATION IS
OCCURRING PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AS DEWPOINTS
RISE INTO THE LOW 60S AND TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 70S...THOUGH
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS SLOWING THE RATE OF DIABATIC WARMING
WITHIN THE SFC LAYER. RADAR...SATELLITE AND RUC DATA SHOW AN MCV
OVER NERN OK MOVING NEWD. DEEPER FORCING ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE
IS AUGMENTING ASCENT AND PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM NWRN AR INTO SWRN MO.
INFLOW FROM THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR MIGHT FOSTER A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
MOREOVER...A MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH MCV CIRCULATION OVERLAPS
THIS BOUNDARY FROM NERN OK...NWRN AR INTO SWRN MO RESULTING IN A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF 30-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF
WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR. WHILE MOST STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MULTICELL IN CHARACTER...A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES IF ACTIVITY BECOMES ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

..DIAL/HART.. 04/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   37739352 37019239 36239213 35389264 35199374 35549478
            36709529 37779497 37739352



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