Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 262225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262224
TXZ000-270000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0470
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262224Z - 270000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE...IT PROBABLY WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER HOUSTON METRO AREA INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  FOR THIS REASON...A WW DOES
APPEAR POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL WHICH HAS RECENTLY FORMED HAS
DONE SO IN THE PRESENCE OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY
MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTENT AND SIZABLE CAPE.  IT IS UNCLEAR IF ACTIVITY IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY SUBSTANTIVE MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...BUT IT APPEARS NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS...ALONG WHICH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THERE IS MUCH FURTHER UPSCALE
CONVECTIVE GROWTH...THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO SUSPECT THAT ONGOING
ACTIVITY WILL NOT PERSIST AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...LIKELY
IMPACTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA
THROUGH 23-01Z.  LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE RATHER MODEST IN
SIZE...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...IN
ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND AT LEAST LOCALIZED STRONG
WIND GUSTS.

..KERR/THOMPSON.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29709630 29969549 29999461 29629415 29179484 29029592
            29109624 29379642 29709630




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