Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 270843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270842
OKZ000-TXZ000-271015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0477
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 270842Z - 271015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN OK.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT
UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT IS TRANSITIONING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHWEST
TX/WESTERN OK OVERNIGHT...WITH A RELATED MODEST INCREASE IN
INTENSITY OF WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED
BUOYANCY IS ESTIMATED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK /LIKELY NOT MUCH MORE
THAN 500 J PER KG MUCAPE/...HOWEVER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP
IN RELATIVE PROXIMITY TO THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE...AND STRONG SHEAR
THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER COULD HELP SUSTAIN SOME STRONGER
ELEVATED UPDRAFTS. NEAR-SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   33510031 34300001 34709767 34259636 33549656 32739778
            33510031




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