Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 180431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180431
LAZ000-TXZ000-180530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0351
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SW LA/SE TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 71...

VALID 180431Z - 180530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 71
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...OVERALL SEVERE RISK HAS DIMINISHED AND MAY NOT INTENSIFY
PRIOR TO 07Z WW EXPIRATION.

DISCUSSION...PREVIOUSLY INTENSE MCS THAT PRODUCED SEVERE WEATHER
OVER THE GALVESTON BAY AREA HAS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED IN BOTH RADAR
VELOCITIES AND OBSERVED WINDS IN OFFSHORE/INLAND SURFACE STATIONS.
STILL...AN MCV IS IDENTIFIABLE IN REFLECTIVITY DATA OVER CALCASIEU
PARISH LA. LCH VWP DATA HAS DEPICTED SOME WEAKENING OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN
ORGANIZED STRUCTURES. IT APPEARS THE LEADING STRATIFORM RAINFALL IS
HAVING DELETERIOUS EFFECTS ON INSTABILITY WHICH IN TURN IS LIMITING
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

UPSTREAM...RECENT AMDAR DATA INVOF HOUSTON METRO SUGGESTS THAT WEAK
ELEVATED BUOYANCY PERSISTS IN THE WAKE OF THE SWRN LA MCS. BUT GIVEN
THE EXTENSIVE EARLIER OVERTURNING AND MODIFICATION OF LAPSE
RATES...THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LOW.

..GRAMS.. 04/18/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   28869465 28939515 29139539 29419534 30049486 30329334
            30309252 30159206 29499172 29279179 29219187 28999358
            28869465




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