Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 020026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020026
KSZ000-OKZ000-020130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OK / S-CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 020026Z - 020130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AS STORMS INTENSIFY OVER NWRN OK.  THE CONFINED SPATIAL
EXTENT OF THE ISOLD SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A DRYLINE OVER
NWRN OK AND THIS FEATURE EXTENDS SSWWD ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER IN
SWRN OK.  HIGH-BASED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAS MANAGED TO
MOVE INTO THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE RESERVOIR OVER WRN AND NWRN
OK WITH A MOISTURE AXIS PROTRUDING NWD INTO S-CNTRL KS.  STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 8 DEG C/KM WILL FAVOR HAIL GROWTH GIVEN
COOL H5 TEMPS /-15 SAMPLED BY THE 02/00Z AMA RAOB/.  THE MODERATE
BUOYANCY COUPLED WITH VEERING AND STRENGTHENING FLOW WITH HEIGHT
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES IN THE FORM OF SEVERE
MULTICELL AND TRANSIENT SUPERCELL MODES.  ALTHOUGH NEAR-SURFACE
COOLING WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...INCREASED MOISTURE IN
THE LOW-LEVELS WILL LIKELY SLOW BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING.  AS A
RESULT...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF A LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUST RISK ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NWRN OK
AND FAR S-CNTRL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES LATER THIS EVENING.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 04/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   35899972 37099904 37359818 37129779 36709787 35789857
            35739935 35899972




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