Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 210633
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210633
NCZ000-VAZ000-210800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NC/FAR SOUTHEAST VA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 93...

VALID 210633Z - 210800Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 93 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK CONTINUES OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST NC/EXTREME SOUTHEAST VA. TORNADO WATCH 93 CONTINUES
UNTIL 09Z.

DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...A QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF
CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS ACROSS
NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NC...WITH THE STRONGEST PART OF THIS
CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR/IMMEDIATELY EAST OF I-95 IN AREAS JUST
NORTHEAST OF ROCKY MOUNT AS OF 0615Z. THE PRECEDING AIR MASS REMAINS
MODESTLY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY INHIBITED AMID MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY WEAK/SOUTHERLY...WHILE STRONG /40+ KT/
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE TENDED TO VEER AND ARE NOW MORE
UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA. WITH AID OF
MODEST LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...A QUASI-LINEAR MODE SHOULD
REMAIN PREVALENT AS STORMS SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
PARTICULARLY GIVEN A TREND OF WEAKENING CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE LINE...THE STRONGEST/MOST-ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST NC AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHEAST VA...PARTICULARLY AS
STORMS INTERACT WITH IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING OUTFLOW. LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO RISK REMAIN POSSIBLE.

..GUYER.. 04/21/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON   35817865 36497722 36897682 36737609 36147619 35707772
            35817865



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