Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 180210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180210
TXZ000-180345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0349
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0910 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...S TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 70...

VALID 180210Z - 180345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 70 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR-TERM WITH A
FEW SUPERCELLS FROM THE MIDDLE TX GULF COAST TO NRN TAMAULIPAS.
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE GROWING UPSCALE WHICH MAY YIELD A
PREDOMINANT WIND/HAIL RISK TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. A SEVERE RISK WILL
PROBABLY EXTEND FARTHER S IN DEEP S TX WHERE LOCAL WW EXTENSION IS
RECOMMENDED.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
WIDESPREAD WITH FORCED ASCENT ATOP A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM CALHOUN TO ZAPATA COUNTY AS OF 02Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS
BEING SUPPORTED BY LARGE BUOYANCY AS SAMPLED BY 00Z CRP RAOB AMIDST
MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS. BUT INCREASING GROUND CLUTTER NOTED
IN CRP/BRO RADARS IS SUGGESTIVE OF STRENGTHENING MLCIN WHICH WILL
PROBABLY RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TORNADO RISK. THIS WILL BE FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY A LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODE TRANSITION FROM DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS INTO CLUSTERS. NEVERTHELESS...50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND SMALL-SCALE BOWS CAPABLE
OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 04/18/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON   28569666 28469647 27269741 26409816 26239861 26409909
            26929942 27299938 28059782 28569666




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.