Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 281235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281235
FLZ000-281430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0485
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281235Z - 281430Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE A SHORT TERM THREAT FOR PRIMARILY
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE BY
MID-LATE MORNING WITH DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE. THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER
THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING WIDELY SCATTERED DISCRETE STORMS
WERE DEVELOPING WITHIN WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER S AND SCNTRL
FL AHEAD OF A LARGE MCS THAT IS MOVING SEWD INTO CNTRL FL. THE
DISCRETE STORMS ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A WEAK...NEAR-SFC
STABLE LAYER. 12Z RAOB FROM MIAMI INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE IS
ALREADY QUITE UNSTABLE WITH AROUND 3000 J/KG MUCAPE...MODEST LAPSE
RATES AND NO CAP. THE ATMOSPHERE FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING IS SOMEWHAT LESS UNSTABLE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM
40-50 KT SUPPORTS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND AN EARLIER LEFT MOVER
PRODUCED NICKEL SIZED HAIL AS IT CAME ONSHORE. LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS PARTIAL CLEARING OVER SRN FL WHICH WILL SUPPORT
DIABATIC WARMING OF THE SFC LAYER. STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING
MCS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY UNDERGO
INTENSIFICATION LATER THIS MORNING AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD AND
ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT THAT TIME A WW
ISSUANCE WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 04/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   27528255 27828157 27818050 27168029 26558035 26218132
            26708210 27208238 27528255



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