Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 022320
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022319
SDZ000-NEZ000-030115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0491
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SD...NE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 022319Z - 030115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSING LOCALIZED THREATS OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THESE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED AND
TOO SHORT-LIVED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO RECENT INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL SD INTO CENTRAL NEB.
WHILE A SHORT DIURNAL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAY EXIST FOR A COUPLE
OF NEAR-SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND EVENTS...OVERALL CONVECTIVE VIGOR
WILL BE TEMPERED BY SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING... 1) LACK OF MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CAPE... 2) GENERALLY MARGINAL
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AVERAGING AROUND 30KT AND... 3) LACK OF STRONGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. WHILE SHEAR AND ASCENT MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT
INTO THE EVENING WITH THE REGION BEING BRUSHED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE NORTH...THIS WILL COINCIDE
WITH DIURNAL COOLING AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION...LIKELY
LIMITING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SUSTAINED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
THUS PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE IS LOW.

..CARBIN/EDWARDS.. 05/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   43290082 44140068 44390012 44179945 43539905 42869894
            42309901 41829905 41469915 41209944 41009975 40810006
            40680028 40870038 41350030 41780033 42060038 42530062
            42940073 43290082




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.