Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 022258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022258
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-030100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0490
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0558 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND...NW MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 022258Z - 030100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY A STORM
CLUSTER APPROACHING THE FARGO-MOORHEAD AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD
QUICKLY WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

DISCUSSION...RECENT CONSOLIDATION OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION HAS
YIELDED A SMALL CLUSTER APPROACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY FROM SE ND.
DESPITE THE MVX VWP SAMPLING SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...0-6 KM VALUES AROUND 40 KT...VERY LARGE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS BETWEEN 40-50 DEG F SUGGEST THAT
SEVERE HAIL RISK SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. THE DEEP INVERTED-V
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS WITH 40-50 KT GUSTS MEASURED AT SEVERAL
ASOS/AWOS STATIONS SINCE 21Z. WITH THE REGION REMAINING WELL
DIVORCED FROM A PLUME OF COMPARATIVELY RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS
FROM SE SD/NW IA SWD/...THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER RAPIDLY COOLS.

..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 05/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   47259730 47559693 47589658 47529623 47219591 46699593
            46049620 45939659 45949770 46139803 46619779 47259730



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