Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 281623
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281623
FLZ000-281800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0486
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TO SCNTRL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281623Z - 281800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SCNTRL FL
PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT BUT HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WITH CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN
THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. THE WSR-88D VWP AT MIAMI SHOWS
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM JUST ABOVE THE SFC TO MID-LEVELS WITH SOME
SPEED SHEAR ABOVE 4 KM AGL. THIS IS CREATING 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 55 KT
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND CELL ROTATION WITH THE
STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT STORMS. ALTHOUGH SUPERCELLS AND HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CELLS THAT CAN REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE...THE
TENDENCY MAY BE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.
THIS WOULD FAVOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS A LINE OF STORMS...CURRENTLY IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO...MOVES
ONTO THE WEST COAST OF SRN FL.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 04/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   26048014 25908106 25928169 26538235 26928260 27088260
            27198252 27278231 27298116 27378070 27508022 27337990
            26787979 26048014



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