Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 182132
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182132
TXZ000-190000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0358
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0432 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...A PORTION OF S-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 182132Z - 190000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY
REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS BLOSSOMING FROM AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MESOSCALE CONVERGE/CUMULUS CONGESTUS NE OF HONDO TX...NEAR A SFC
TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE EVOLVING FROM DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS
OVER THE NRN MEXICO MOUNTAINS. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD EWD
INTO THE EVENING. DIURNAL HEATING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CONVECTION/RELATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HAS ALLOWED MODEST
DESTABILIZATION OF A FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SUPPORTING
1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THIS MAY SUSTAIN A FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
WEAK...THOUGH AROUND 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAY FOSTER
ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. ONE FACTOR PERHAPS
INHIBITING OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY MAY BE THE LACK OF WARMER
SFC TEMPERATURES...AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTIVELY PROCESSED AIR. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/18/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29079938 29949832 30849767 30119730 28519784 27989970
            28250013 29000049 29079938



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