Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 042027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042027
TXZ000-NMZ000-042200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0501
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM...FAR W TX...TX SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 128...

VALID 042027Z - 042200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 128
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW
128...WITH SOME LIMITED THREAT EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS.

DISCUSSION...AS 2015Z...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WERE
ONGOING ACROSS WW 128...WITH A FEW CELLS DISPLAYING SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS. LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...BUT SLOW STORM MOTION WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL SURGING OUTFLOW AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO
THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL...BUT
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THIS THREAT IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE GREATEST RELATIVE TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE
DEVELOPING SUPERCELL NORTH OF MARFA NEAR THE JEFF DAVIS/REEVES
COUNTY BORDER...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE...BUT THIS
CELL MAY MOVE INTO TORNADO WATCH 129 SHORTLY.

FURTHER EAST...SEVERE TSTMS JUST N OF HOBBS WILL MOVE INTO PARTS THE
TX SOUTH PLAINS...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY SEVERE
HAIL/WIND. AT THIS TIME...WW ISSUANCE ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
EAST OF WW 128 IS UNLIKELY DUE TO AN INCREASINGLY MARGINAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..DEAN/HART.. 05/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   30410390 30630498 30850538 31160576 31320594 31380600
            32000637 33650636 34250591 34550525 34570472 34570373
            34320215 32030249 31940404 30410379 30410390 30410390



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