Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 261432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261431
FLZ000-261700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0464
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0931 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261431Z - 261700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE/MOVE INLAND AND
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...LARGELY RELATED TO PRIOR DAY CONVECTION/OUTFLOW...AN
EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND RELATED ZONE OF
CONFLUENCE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EXTENDS IN A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING
FROM TAMPA BAY SAMPLES THE MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT
EXISTS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...WHERE MLCAPE IS
LIKELY TO REACH 1500-2000 J/KG BY MIDDAY AMID WEAKENING BOUNDARY
LAYER INHIBITION.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONGOING STRONG STORMS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHILE STORMS OTHERWISE INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF THE
WEST-EAST ORIENTED EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY
MATERIALIZE NEAR THE NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL FL COAST WHERE
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN VICINITY OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
REGARDLESS...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WITH STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE AIDED BY STRONG
MID-LEVEL WINDS /30-50 KT BETWEEN 3-6 KM AGL/...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
EVENTUALLY CLUSTER AS THEY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29498310 29538198 29448083 28228084 28348297 29218355
            29498310



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