Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 172007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172006
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-172130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0338
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN OK...SW KS AND THE ERN OK/TX
PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 172006Z - 172130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST KS INTO WESTERN OK AND THE EASTERN
OK/TX PANHANDLES. IF STORMS DEVELOP...STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE. EARLIER CLOUD COVER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND THE AIRMASS
HAS BEEN RECOVERING...WITH SBCAPE NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG PER 19Z
MESOANALYSIS. AREA VAD WIND PROFILES SHOWED SOMEWHAT WEAK LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WITH SFC-3KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KT. FURTHERMORE...THE AREA
REMAINS REMOVED FROM STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING TO INITIATE WITH
SOMEWHAT RAGGED LOOKING TCU OFF THE DRYLINE IN THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE AND SOME SLOWLY INCREASING RADAR ECHOS OVER HARPER AND
WOODS COUNTY IN NW OK. WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING TO
GO...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE AND A FEW CELLS COULD
DEVELOP IN WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. SHOULD
THESE STORMS DEVELOP...STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. GIVEN QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION
AND COVERAGE THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CLEAR. AS SUCH...CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/17/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34870133 38690194 39090104 39019958 38409846 37519808
            36309803 35699830 34979882 34429932 34430014 34330083
            34380129 34870133



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