Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 242157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242156
TXZ000-242330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0439
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242156Z - 242330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN MX WILL
APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITHIN THE NEXT HR. PARTS OF S TX ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN MX ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY /S OF DRT/ BY 23Z. STRONG
HEATING WITHIN A MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF
2500-3500 J/KG...AND A WEAKENING CAP WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S F. 50 KT MIDLEVEL SWLYS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DMGG WIND GUSTS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...BUT VEERS WITH HEIGHT...SO
A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

THE MOST FAVORABLE ZONE FOR SVR TSTMS IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE
DOWNSTREAM FROM DEVELOPING CONVECTION /ROUGHLY BETWEEN DRT AND LRD
AND AREAS TO THE E/. ADDITIONAL WEAKER CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING
FARTHER S UPSTREAM FROM ZAPATA/WEBB COUNTIES...BUT WILL LIKELY BE AT
LEAST 2 HRS BEFORE THESE AREAS ARE AFFECTED. SPATIAL COVERAGE OF
TSTMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
OROGRAPHIC FORCING BEING PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...TRENDS
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..ROGERS/DIAL/THOMPSON.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   29520118 29730078 29769944 29469862 28559828 26159834
            26269873 26439907 26899936 27069944 27559949 27729979
            28340033 28930063 29150077 29520118



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