Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 051958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051958
TXZ000-NMZ000-052130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0512
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT TUE MAY 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SE NM...WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051958Z - 052130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE NM AND
WEST TX BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE
NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
DRY-SLOT OVER WEST TX FROM NEAR MIDLAND NWD TO AMARILLO. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF LUBBOCK. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SFC TEMPS HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S F WHERE A NARROW AXIS
OF INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE FROM 1000 TO
1200 J/KG JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LUBBOCK ACCORDING TO MESOANALYSIS. IN
ADDITION...A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS ANALYZED ACROSS SE
NM AND WEST TX WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 40
TO 45 KT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND DOWNDRAFTS MATURE. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS CELLS INTERACT WITH THE WRN EDGE
OF A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS WEST TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
CONCERNING THE NUMBER OF STORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP. FOR THAT
REASON...THE NEED FOR A WATCH REMAINS CONDITIONAL ATTM.

..BROYLES/HART.. 05/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34490242 34570167 34340127 34070110 33670110 33020120
            32640137 32310175 32280265 32380355 32620372 32970373
            33460348 33960313 34210292 34490242



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