Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 032057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032057
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-032300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0494
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NE AND WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 032057Z - 032300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR
SEVERE HAIL REPORT ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WW NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...2030Z VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS A RELATIVELY
ROBUST CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF ERN NE. LATEST WSR-88D
DATA FROM KUEX DEPICT SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK ECHOES ALOFT...WITH ONE
MODEST CORE OVER NERN MERRICK CO. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE/BECOME MORE VIGOROUS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AS SFC CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH/NEAR WEAK SFC LOW AND STRONG HEATING /E.G. TEMPS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S/ SUSTAIN STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WHILE FLOW
REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK /WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY ON
THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS/...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE YIELDING
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. AS SUCH...A THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST. FURTHERMORE...A DEEPLY MIXED BL
AND POTENTIAL STORM MERGERS WILL OFFER A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS. NONETHELESS...DUE TO THE OVERALL LACK OF
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STORMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOLLOWING THE LOSS OF INSOLATION LATER THIS
EVENING.

..PICCA/HART.. 05/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON   42719528 42199442 41169431 40699490 40319594 40049677
            39999806 40089856 40359915 40679937 40729937 41319869
            42109775 42719713 42799702 42969604 42719528



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