Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 050305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050305
TXZ000-NMZ000-050500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0509
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF WRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 131...

VALID 050305Z - 050500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 131 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NRN PORTIONS OF THE WW ATTM.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE SELY LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW PERSISTING INTO ONGOING SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS.  THE TWO
STRONGEST CELLS -- ONE OVER WARD AND THE OTHER OVER ERN PECOS CO --
APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTINUE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.  ANOTHER STORM
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS MARTIN CO -- AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AS AN AXIS OF ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER
CAPE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION.  WITH QG FORCING INCREASING --
EVIDENT IN WEAK CELLULAR INCREASE ACROSS FAR W TX AND SERN NM -- AS
A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY APPROACHING SWRN
U.S. UPPER SYSTEM...DEVELOPMENT OF NEW/ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS POSSIBLE.

..GOSS.. 05/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30550388 31900391 32350285 32470180 31500137 29200076
            29790152 29870236 29730267 30050337 30550388



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