Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 202125
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202124
FLZ000-202300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0403
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0424 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86...87...

VALID 202124Z - 202300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
86...87...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS PERSISTS ACROSS
REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WWS 86 AND 87.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ERN EXTENT OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ERN GULF TO THE W-CNTRL FL
PENINSULA IS CROSSING THE TAMPA BAY AREA AT PRESENT. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD...WHERE MODEST DIURNAL SFC HEATING
AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F HAS SUPPORTED
MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE TBW VWP SAMPLES AROUND 40-45 KT OF
MID-LEVEL FLOW CAPABLE OF MAINTAINING LOOSELY ORGANIZED STORM
CLUSTERS WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS -- AIDED BY WATER
LOADING.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WWS 86 AND
87...MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
DMGG WIND GUSTS CONTINUE DURING THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING
CYCLE...THOUGH EARLIER CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING MAY RESTRICT THE
OVERALL SVR-RISK TO SOME EXTENT.

..COHEN.. 04/20/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   27458240 27888243 28558153 28208055 26567991 25968041
            27258078 27758148 27458240



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