Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 061809
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061809
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-062045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0516
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL KS...S CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 061809Z - 062045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN INTO CNTRL KS WITH
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU INCREASING IN DEPTH ACROSS
MUCH OF CNTRL KS INTO SWRN NEB DUE TO HEATING AND A RAPID NWD
ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S
F. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NERN CO INTO WRN
KS...WITH ENHANCED VORTICITY ON THE N SIDE OF THE MIDLEVEL JET.

NEARBY VWPS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL TURNING OF THE WINDS WITH
HEIGHT...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THE LACK OF A CAPPING INVERSION
COMBINED WITH THE RELATIVELY HIGH-RH BOUNDARY LAYER AND AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL SRH SUGGEST TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY
BUT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SUGGESTING HP SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A
LINEAR MODE AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL...MAINLY OVER NRN KS
INTO SRN NEB.

..JEWELL/HART.. 05/06/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   36979769 36719852 36719899 36959924 37249943 37909957
            38409975 38800023 39180046 39690042 40110022 40499952
            40909813 40889757 40239716 39259716 38089712 37469722
            36979769



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