Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 041846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041845
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-042045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0499
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN NM AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 041845Z - 042045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL REPORTS OR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. WW ISSUANCE NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...18Z WSR-88D MOSAIC ILLUSTRATES AN AREA OF BLOSSOMING
CONVECTION AROUND APPROX TCC-CVS AND TO THE EAST OVER PORTIONS OF
THE TX PANHANDLE. WHILE NONE OF THE CONVECTION HAS APPEARED
PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED /LIKELY DUE TO FAIRLY MEAGER EFFECTIVE
SHEAR/...RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE BUOYANCY
ARE YIELDING ROBUST ELEVATED REFLECTIVITY CORES. INDEED...A
WELL-MIXED BL AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S HAVE COMBINED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY TO YIELD MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS A
RESULT OF AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A N/NEWD-PROGRESSING MCV /TO THE
WEST OF TCC/ AND A SFC TROUGH/FRONT STRETCHING TO THE NE.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE MODEST WIND PROFILE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE BETWEEN AN ABUNDANCE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO A MARGINAL
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR A FEW STRONG GUSTS. MOST RECENT KFDX
DATA SUPPORT THIS NOTION...AS VELOCITY AND DUAL-POL CC/ZDR DATA IN
THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE OF THE STRONGER CORES SUGGEST A GENERAL LACK OF
BROAD/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING VERY LARGE HAIL.
CONSIDERING THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT...WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

..PICCA/HART.. 05/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34870190 34400323 34370463 35050536 35870520 36620488
            37150410 37200299 37070177 36570110 36120095 35310110
            34870190



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