Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 041957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041956
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-042200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0500
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN/CNTRL/NERN KS...NWRN MO...FAR SERN
NE...AND FAR SWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041956Z - 042200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...1930Z VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY/WSR-88D MOSAIC DISPLAY
BUILDING CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF SW KS...WHERE TEMPS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S DUE TO AMPLE INSOLATION. FARTHER
NORTHEAST...A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED AROUND
SLN AND POINTS NE. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN
FOSTERED BY THE INFLUENCE OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS WELL AS
AN MCV LIFTING N/NE INTO NEBRASKA. AS HEATING CONTINUES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND SFC CONVERGENCE IS AIDED BY A TROUGH/FRONT STRETCHING
FROM W-CNTRL/SW KS NE TOWARDS THE MO VALLEY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE...DESPITE FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT. WHILE BACKGROUND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS FAIRLY MEAGER...SOME
ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT...WHERE BACKED FLOW WILL
OFFER AN OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. IN COMBINATION
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG...RESULTING FROM A REMNANT
PLUME OF FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ANY AREAS OF ENHANCED
SHEAR SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN MORE VIGOROUS/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. FURTHERMORE...POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING
WILL SUPPORT SOME DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS ERN KS/NWRN MO WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT
FOR STORMS IN THIS AREA. AS SUCH...WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..PICCA/HART.. 05/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38959497 38089728 37659971 37790150 38890141 39609856
            40319702 41009562 41059464 40419388 38959497



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