Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 262018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262018
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-262215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0469
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN NM...TX PANHANDLE...SWRN PANHANDLE OF
OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262018Z - 262215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ARC
BETWEEN TAD-AMA..AND WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS NARROW CORRIDOR OF
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY BEFORE WEAKENING.  ACTIVITY MAY LAST LONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SVR HAIL OR A TORNADO.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED...FOR
SOME PARTS OF THIS CORRIDOR...PERHAPS AS WWD EXTENSION IN SPACE OF
WW 120.

DISCUSSION...NARROW PLUME OF AT LEAST MRGLLY BUOYANT/SFC-BASED
EFFECTIVE-INFLOW AIR IS EVIDENT BETWEEN ARCHING FRONTAL ZONE THAT
EXTENDS WNWWD FROM SWRN OK...AND DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY TO
ITS N.  PAC COLD FRONT WAS CATCHING UP TO FIRST FRONTAL
ZONE...PROGRESSIVELY OVERTAKING IT FROM NW-SE AND AUGMENTING
ASSOCIATED LIFT.  50-75-NM-WIDE CHANNEL OF 500-1200 J/KG MLCAPE WAS
EVIDENT FROM MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THIS CORRIDOR...WITH
INSOLATION ACTING UPON SIR MASS CONTAINING MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
BOUNDARY-ASSOCIATED VORTICITY AND 0-3-KM CAPE MAX MAY BECOME BETTER
JUXTAPOSED OVER CENTRAL/WRN PANHANDLE AND ERN UNION COUNTY NM AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY.  50-KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES SHOULD AID IN
STORM ORGANIZATION...BEFORE MODES GET MESSY AND/OR INSTABILITY
DECREASES DUE TO COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW...ANVIL SHADING AND EVENTUAL
EVENING DIABATIC COOLING.

..EDWARDS/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36940329 36590253 35920164 35040100 34540086 34650156
            35420213 36040302 36710400 36940329



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