Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 251931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251930
FLZ000-GAZ000-252030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0457
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 110...

VALID 251930Z - 252030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 110 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ACROSS SRN
GA AND NRN FL...GENERALLY FROM TALLAHASSEE FL NEWD TO VALDOSTA GA.
THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE
HAIL...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED TO
REPLACE TORNADO WATCH 110...WHICH EXPIRES AT 20Z.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL INDICATE
THAT NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
EARLIER STORMS THAT HAVE MOSTLY MOVED EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
THESE STORMS ARE FORMING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE
OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-60 KT. EVEN
THROUGH PRIOR CONVECTION HAS PROBABLY REDUCED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
SOMEWHAT...CURRENT PARAMETERS SUGGEST LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS NOW VEERED TO THE WSW AND
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH STRONGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE
TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE LESSENING. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH 20Z...THEN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL.
THIS NEW WATCH WOULD REPLACE TORNADO WATCH 110...WHICH EXPIRES AT
20Z.

..GLEASON.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   30198129 30168336 30148490 31208477 31168119 30198129




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