Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 060257
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060256
TXZ000-OKZ000-060430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0514
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0956 PM CDT TUE MAY 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX PANHANDLE...TX BIG COUNTRY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 132...

VALID 060256Z - 060430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 132 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SOME ISOLATED HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS
OF THE WATCH WHILE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF
TORNADO ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS N OF SJT.

DISCUSSION...TWO DISTINCT THREAT AREAS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN TORNADO
WATCH 132...ONE ASSOCIATED WITH A TSTM CLUSTER WITH OCCASIONAL
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE SE TX PANHANDLE MOVING NEWD INTO FAR
NW TX AND FAR SW OK AND THE OTHER N OF SJT WITH A SUPERCELL MOVING
ESEWD FROM MITCHELL AND STERLING COUNTIES INTO COKE COUNTY. ACTIVITY
IN THE NRN AREA APPEARS TO BE OUTFLOW DOMINATED WITH RADAR IMAGERY
SUGGESTING A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE HAS OCCURRED. BEST AREA FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ALONG THE SRN END OF THE LINE BUT THE
OUTFLOW IS WELL AHEAD OF THE ONGOING TSTMS IN DICKENS AND KING
COUNTIES AND NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED.
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY NOW APPEARS TO BE HAIL WITH A
SECONDARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME INCREASING HOSTILE TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION.

CYCLIC SUPERCELL IN COKE COUNTY APPEARS TO BE WANING AS WELL WITH
RECENT RADAR SCANS SAMPLING DIMINISHING REFLECTIVITY ALOFT.
MESOCYCLONE WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED
TORNADO THREAT FOR THE NEXT HALF-HOUR OR SO BUT DIURNALLY INCREASING
CINH AND THE LACK OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LEAD TO
CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND.

..MOSIER.. 05/06/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33700166 34290134 34460078 34539988 34389954 34119936
            32499926 31549952 31370062 31650150 32800165 33700166



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