Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 190124
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190124
TXZ000-190300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0370
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0824 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 72...76...

VALID 190124Z - 190300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
72...76...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF
CNTRL/ERN TX ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS...AND ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A MATURE LEADING-LINE/TRAILING-STRATIFORM MCS WITH A
HISTORY OF MEASURED SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE DFW METROPLEX AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD. LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS EWD...AIDED BY
CONVERGENCE AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM-ESTABLISHED COLD POOL.
HOWEVER...THIS MCS IS LIKELY BEYOND PEAK INTENSITY...AS IT IS
ADVANCING INTO NOW-NOCTURNALLY STABILIZED AND CONVECTIVELY PROCESSED
AIR. RELATED MLCINH WAS SAMPLED AT THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING...AND SHOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN WEAKENING OF THE MCS. LOCAL EXTENSION OF WW 72 MAY
BE CONSIDERED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH
CONVECTIVE BACKBUILDING HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIMITED WITHOUT MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BACKGROUND POLEWARD MASS FLUXES. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL
WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED...AND AREAS BEHIND THE LEADING
CONVECTIVE LINE/TRANSITION REGION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE
ADDITIONAL SVR RISK.

..COHEN.. 04/19/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   30069933 30789792 31799698 33449696 33619607 33329558
            31519544 30279669 29479837 30069933



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