Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS64 KMRX 021903 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 303 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHO SOME FLAT CUMULUS CLOUDS DID BREAK OUT IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. MESO PAGE SHOWS A GOOD DEAL OF NEGATIVE CAPE TO SUPPRESS THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY. THE VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WAS LIMITED TO BODIES OF WATER FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY COUNTIES OF EAST TN NE INTO SW VA. I TRIED TO LIMIT VALLEY FOG TONIGHT TO THESE AREAS...PLUS SW NC IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE. FAVORED THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MOS MINS WHERE SLIGHT DIFFS WERE NOTED. NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST GRIDS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS RIDGING DOMINATES AND TEMPS RISE A BIT EACH PERIOD. THE CAPPING LOOKS WEAKER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE ERN MTNS...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE QUITE WEAK. HOWEVER...I DID SPRAY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (SHOWERS) ALONG THE TN-NC LINE TO MESH WITH GSP/FFC/RNK GRIDS. CONTINUED THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND SW VA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SIMILAR MOS MAXES/MINS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...THE RIDGE PATTERN SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RISING HEIGHTS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. NOT MUCH PRESENT TO GENERATE LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN SOME OROGRAPHICS. TRIED TO GIVE ROBO-GRIDS SOME VALUE BY SUBTRACTING PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER DURING UNFAVORABLE PERIODS (MORNING/NIGHT) AND TRIMMING A BIT TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THREAT ON THE MAJOR TERRAIN FEATURES. MAX AND MIN TEMPS SHOULD RUN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES AHEAD OF CLIMO DUE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 51 80 56 81 / 0 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 77 54 80 / 0 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 49 78 54 80 / 0 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 75 49 78 / 0 0 0 10
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.