Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 031911 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 311 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...TEMPS HAVE WARMED ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO AHEAD OF FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WARM TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS CLOUDS. NOT SEEING MUCH IF ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE ERN MTNS...SO WILL OPT NOT TO CARRY ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS QUITE DRY TONIGHT GIVEN THE SUNSHINE AND WARM HIGHS TODAY... SO NO NEED TO ADD ANY PATCHY VALLEY FOG. MOS GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN AT LEAST 1 TO 3 DEGREES TOO WARM FOR MIN TEMPS...THUS I WENT JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE GFS MOS MINS FOR TONIGHT. FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS GRIDS IN LIMITING ANY CONVECTION TO THE ERN MTNS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SPLATTERED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PLATEAU INTO THE REMAINDER OF SW VA (WISE AND LEE COUNTIES). CLOSELY FOLLOWED SIMILAR NAM/GFS MOS TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS DOMINANT ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND A LIGHT SW-W SURFACE WIND...WHICH FAVORED GOING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE 12Z MOS GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM REMAINS BASICALLY THE SAME WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN JUST A SLIGHT UPTICK IN PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATER IN THE WEEK...AGAIN PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAJOR TERRAIN FEATURES. THE SUPPRESSING ABILITIES OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP A DRY AND WARM REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM. TWEAKED ROBO-GRIDS BACK A LITTLE TO REVEAL A MORE REALISTIC LOOK TO THE PROBABILITIES WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR A SHOWER ON THE TERRAIN WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POSSIBILITIES IN THE GREAT VALLEY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 55 83 58 82 / 0 10 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 52 80 58 81 / 0 10 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 53 82 58 82 / 0 10 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 48 80 53 81 / 0 10 10 20
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG

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