Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 180715 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 315 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG IN AREAS WHERE CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING AND A DOWNSLOPE SE FLOW ALOFT INTENSIFYING IN THE AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN TN VALLEY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN THE TRI-CITIES AREA. GREATER CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S IN THAT AREA. AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE A LITTLE INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL HAVE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACTING IN CONJUNCTINO WITH ON MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MENTIONED. SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF QPF BEFORE 12Z...WHILE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL SUPPRESS QPF NORTH FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... SUNDAY MORNING CONTINUES THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE ARKANSAS/TENNESSEE BORDER. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH AROUND SUNDAY AT NOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE GENERALLY NEAR OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF NEAR 1 INCH OF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS. WE WILL THEN NEED TO TURN OUR ATTENTION TO SOME POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHING STORMS AS THEY FORM ACROSS FAR EASTERN TEXAS INTO FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS CONGEAL INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OF TENNESSEE. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT THE STORMS WILL LOSE A LOT OF THEIR PUNCH OVERNIGHT, BUT WON`T RULE OUT THE CHANCE THAT A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR CWA. WILL STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING AROUND THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES IT`S WAY THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES STAY AWAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW RIPPLES OF ENERGY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. ECMWF IS STARTING TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN. RIGHT NOW THE DETAILS ARE FUZZY, BUT WE COULD BE IN FOR A WET START TO NEXT WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 76 62 76 61 / 40 100 90 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 78 61 76 61 / 20 100 90 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 77 62 75 60 / 20 100 90 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 58 75 56 / 20 70 90 60 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DGS/ABM

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