Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 011858 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 258 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SEEING MOSTLY CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO SHOWERS AS OF YET WITH A MORE STABLE AIRMASS THAN EXPECTED. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN WOULD ONLY BRING A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING TO OUR FAR NE CORNER SO POPS WERE DROPPED ELSEWHERE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MENTIONED FOR RUSSELL/WASHINGTON VA COUNTIES AND OUR NE TN MTNS. SLOWED DOWN THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS JUST A BIT...AND KEPT THE PATCHY AREAS OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS GRIDS FOR LATE TONIGHT AROUND THE LAKES & STREAMS. UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING STILL LOOKS TO BRING US AN AWESOME WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS ACTUALLY WARMING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY SUNDAY. THE SREF AND NAM MODELS TRY TO ALLOW FOR SOME POP UP CONVECTION IN THE SMOKY MTNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN DRY. SAW NO REASON TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST YET FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING TEMPS ALOFT TO INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION. CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE SIMILAR NAM AND GFS MOS TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER PLEASANT EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGING AND AN ATMOSPHERE THAT MAY NOT HAVE QUITE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE RAINFALL. THE GFS TRIES TO GENERATE A TINY LITTLE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE PATTERN IN THE VICINITY OF THE MOUNTAINS AND WITH SOME OROGRAPHICS IT SEEMS TO "OVERDO" THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE TERRAIN. STAYED WITH THE RATHER SMALL POPS THAT THE SUPERBLEND CREATE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND TRIED TO TRIM BACK TO THE MORE ORGRAPHICALLY FAVORED PARTS OF THE VIEWING AREA NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT EDGES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AND THIS MAY LEAD TO AN EVER SO SLIGHT INCREASE IN POP FOR WIDELY SCATTERED...MAINLY TERRAIN INFLUENCED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 49 75 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 48 73 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 46 73 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 70 44 76 / 10 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG

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