Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 170712 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 312 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT MIDLEVELS ARE QUITE DRY AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z OHX SOUNDING. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING...DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR PRECIP WILL MAINLY STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY IN ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET STREAK EXIT REGION. THE NAM QPF SHOWS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PLATEAU...BUT LOOKING AT NAM SOUNDINGS...THE DRY MIDLEVELS AND AN INVERSION BELOW IT DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THIS. WILL HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTH. ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD END AFTER 00Z AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME LIFTING/SCATTERING OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON...MOST OF THAT BEING NORTH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... WILL BE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA DRY TO START THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS TO POP UP DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AS WE SEE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 80 DEGREES IN SOME PLACES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SPINS IT`S WAY CLOSER TO THE AREA. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE MOVE UP NEAR THE ARKANSAS/TENNESSEE BORDER BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH IT WILL BRING IN VERY MOIST AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES(GENERALLY IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE) ON SUNDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME FRAME, AS WE HAVE GOTTEN SOME DECENT RAINFALL, (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES) FOR POTENTIAL ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS. ON THE HEELS OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WE WILL CLEAR OUT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE SKIES AND DROP TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA TO START OFF THE WORK WEEK. WE LOOK TO STAY RELATIVELY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW DAYS WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES BRINGING IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD MOVE IN ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS WANTING TO BRING IN MOISTURE WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DRIER. WILL WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE RAISING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 57 80 63 / 40 10 40 90 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 56 80 61 / 20 10 30 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 73 58 81 61 / 20 10 30 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 75 51 80 55 / 20 10 20 60 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DGS/ABM

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