Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 191433 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1033 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 .DISCUSSION...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH JET STRUCTURE PLACING THE REGION UNDER FAVORED DIVERGENCE ALOFT. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE...CURRENTLY NEAR ATHENS...TENNESSEE. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALABAMA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST MODELS SHOW CAPES INCREASING TO 1000 J/KG WITH GOOD SHEAR 0-1KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS AND SRH OVER 250 M2/S2. CONCERNED FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT JUST WEST OF THE PLATEAU...THEN MOVING INTO THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE VALLEY. BESIDES THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER...PWS ARE UNSEASONABLY HIGH. SOME TRAINING OF CELLS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AND FLASH FLOODING. MAIN SOME MINOR CHANGES TO HIGHS TODAY...OTHERWISE...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS TODAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 75 62 74 49 / 100 50 50 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 61 74 48 / 100 60 50 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 71 61 72 47 / 100 60 50 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 70 55 74 46 / 100 60 70 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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