Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 011911 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 308 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE 850 MB WARM FRONT/THETA-E BOUNDARY. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN AREAS BEHIND THIS FEATURE. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...AND WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A S-SW 850 MB FLOW AROUND 40 KTS WILL PRODUCE SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY...AND THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE LOWEST POPS AND WARMEST HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE CIN AREA IS STRONGER NORTH AS WELL...SO WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH NO TSTMS THERE. AT THIS TIME A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS APPEARS TO BE JUST BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR TOMORROW...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REASSESS IF WINDS ALOFT TREND STRONGER. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY. AN UNORGANIZED BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE. DECENT 850MB JET AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE LIMITED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH. THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE STRONG WINDS. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND FOR DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS. WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 54 72 59 75 / 20 50 20 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 50 71 58 73 / 20 40 30 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 50 70 58 73 / 20 40 30 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 41 73 55 70 / 10 20 40 70 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DGS/MJB

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