Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 010722 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 322 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING. LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT LEADING TO A QUITE PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60`S TO MID 70`S TODAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGING MOVES EAST ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN PULLING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THURSDAY AS AIRMASS WILL BE UNSTABLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR FRIDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLO- GENESIS MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE EAST TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITH CIRCULATIONS AROUND THE JET ENHANCING FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. GOOD SPEED SHEAR NOTED AHEAD OF FRONT. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH EXPECTED LINE OF STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50-60KTS. BOWING OF STORMS AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN PROBLEM. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RIDGING MOVES EAST ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FAST MOVING SHORT-WAVES PRODUCING CHANCES OF SHOWERS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 75 52 74 59 / 0 30 50 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 48 72 59 / 0 20 40 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 71 48 72 59 / 0 20 40 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 40 73 55 / 0 10 40 40
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ ABM/DH

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