Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 230652 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 250 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WHILE RIDING OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. DESPITE A FEW ALTO CU AND SOME CI MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SUNSHINE SHOULD RULE TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY`S WARMTH HOLDING IN THE 60S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TO AS WARM AS THE LOWER 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS PROGGED TO BE RATHER LARGE TONIGHT WITH EVEN A LITTLE MIXING UNTIL LATE EVENING. DON`T EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FROST IN THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE VIEWING AREA. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS AL WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP LATE IN THE DAY. POPS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT RAMPS UP. MODEL AGREEMENT OF GOOD SYNOPTIC FORCING AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT CATEGORICAL POPS ARE WARRANTED ON SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM BRINGS A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION INTO THE AREA FROM KY IN THE EVENING...AND THIS MAY BE THE PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL AS AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS TAPPED WITH THE WARM FRONT BEING NORTH OF OUR AREA BY THIS TIME. ALL SEVERE THREATS WILL BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING ISOLATED TORS. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY...ENDING WHEN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN REGARD TO A CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SE. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS ITS TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND KEEPING ALL PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS IS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH BUT STILL BRINGS PLENTY OF PRECIP WITH THE LOW TRACKING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 42 72 56 / 0 0 30 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 37 70 54 / 0 0 10 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 65 37 70 55 / 0 0 20 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 33 66 44 / 0 0 10 60
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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