Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 041901 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 301 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...A LOVELY RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LIMITING CLOUD FORMATION AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM. IF THERE IS A SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS...IT WOULD POP UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE. ADJUSTED MINS DOWNWARD ABOUT TWO DEGREES TONIGHT WHILE ADDING A DEGREE OR TWO TO MAXES FOR TUESDAY. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MORE COMMON IN THE EARLY SUMMER MONTHS WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL STATES BY MID TO LATE WEEK BUT BE HELD UP BY RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL LATE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A NON TROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND BRING IT CLOSE TO THE COAST OR INLAND THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE BRINGING IT WELL INLAND ON FRIDAY. ENOUGH SO THAT IT COULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST. OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM FARTHER EAST. BELIEVE GFS IS THE OUTLIER. IN ANY CASE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE TERRAIN AREAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL AREAS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY MONDAY. LOWS WILL STAY MILD IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL GET LITTLE RAIN BUT MOUNTAINS COULD GET A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP EACH DAY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 56 83 57 83 / 0 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 81 58 82 / 0 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 55 82 58 82 / 0 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 50 80 54 80 / 0 10 10 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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