Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 260709 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 301 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE NE U.S. COAST TROUGHS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE NW TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT SE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FAVORING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY TODAY. .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR MID WEEK AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE GFS BRINGS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE REGION AND SPREADS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM KEEPS THE LOW TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH...PROVIDING LIMITED CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST. WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO BUT WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS SINCE IT HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FAR SOUTH WITH POPS DECREASING AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL LINGER POPS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR A RETURN TO QUIET CONDITIONS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 48 70 47 / 10 10 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 44 66 43 / 10 10 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 67 44 66 43 / 10 10 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 40 62 39 / 10 10 10 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SON/MJB

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