Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS64 KMRX 300720 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 320 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PLACE EAST TENNESSEE UNDER THE FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DIRECT CIRCULATION AROUND THE JET WILL ENHANCE THE FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 08-10Z. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL BAND. CHA FORECAST SOUNDING FOR 09Z SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT CONVECTION OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE/NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. AS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES EAST BY 12Z...CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SKIES CLEARING FAIRLY QUICKLY AT CHA AND TYS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGER AT TRI. ALL AREAS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S MOST LOCATIONS. AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY OVER TRI AND POSSIBLY TYS. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... CONTINUED WARM...EARLY SPRING-LIKE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WE CLOSER OUT MARCH AND BEGIN THE MONTH OF APRIL. ON TUESDAY...SOME WEAK CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY DRIFT INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY/PLATEAU BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WARMING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 00-06Z. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT LARGER FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THINK THAT WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER WARM/MOSTLY DRY DAY AS AN UPPER-RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY /WITH A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT/...SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...DID NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC THE DETAILS JUST YET. HOWEVER...DO HAVE HIGH-END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF THEREAFTER. GIVEN THE BULK SHEAR PROFILE AND SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THINK SOME ORGANIZED STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND THE TIMING OF THE MAIN FRONT SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS. DRY AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN FOR EASTER SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUNSHINE HELPING CREATE A WARM AND PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 40 73 49 / 30 10 20 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 38 70 45 / 20 0 10 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 63 37 71 45 / 20 0 0 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 57 33 66 39 / 30 0 0 20
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.