Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 301900 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 300 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...COLDEST 500 MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL TO OUR NW THIS AFTERNOON...CENTERED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...ALTHO STILL SEEING SHOWERS DEVELOP ON THE ORDER OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT COVERAGE NORTH OF I-40 AND I-81. MAY SEE THESE SHOWERS DEVELOP OR SPREAD SOUTH TO AT LEAST PARTS OF SE TN AND SW NC LATER...BUT PREVIOUS GRIDS WITH JUST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS LOOKED GREAT. CARRIED THUNDERSTORM WORDING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STILL UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT ON FRIDAY...SO HAD TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN OVER MOSTLY NE TN AND SW VA. TEMPS ALOFT WARM SUFFICIENTLY BY SATURDAY...SO DON`T EXPECT EVEN ANY STRAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS GRIDS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPS MAKE ATTEMPT TO RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND RIGHT AT SEASONAL NORMALS BY SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...IT FINALLY LOOKS LIKE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER FOR SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LIMITING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH SOME MOST EXCELLENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. EVENTUALLY...AROUND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME SPRING TIME INSTABILITY FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM...WITH EMPHASIS ON THE MAJOR TERRAIN FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOST PLEASANT CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S BY MID WEEK AND EVEN INTO THE LOWER 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 70 50 76 / 20 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 45 64 49 73 / 30 10 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 46 66 47 74 / 30 10 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 63 45 71 / 60 30 10 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG

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