Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 161931 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 312 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...ONGOING CONVECTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA AND WILL INCLUDE A PRE-FIRST PERIOD TO COVER THIS. BY THIS EVENING...THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING OUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...MAINLY ALONG THE TN/GA LINE. CONVECTION WILL LIFT NORTH ON FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PULL OUT LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A BIT TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 50S ACROSS THE VALLEY. IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER ON FRIDAY AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE 70S. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...FRIDAY NIGHT WE HAVE A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THIS WEAK RIDGING SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY BUT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL POSSIBLE. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO CHANCE ACROSS MOST AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. WITH THIS FRONT LIFTING NORTH WE WILL RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THE CLOSED LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH COMING DOWN OUT OF CANADA ALL THE WHILE CONTINUING TO TRACK EAST WHICH FORCES THE RIDING THAT WAS OVER OUR AREA EAST IN RESPONSE. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME (SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING) POPS REALLY RAMP UP AS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WEST TN AND TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE US WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST IT WILL HELP TO PULL MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF. PWS INCREASE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE (1.67 INCHES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND CLOSE TO 2SD ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS NETN. THESE HIGH PWS COULD RESULT IN UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NETN. DUE TO ALL THE RAINFALL FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SOME SPOTS FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES OVER THE WEEKEND. THEN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WE HAVE A FEW MORE SMALL DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS FINALLY ON OUR DOOR STEP AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO BUILD IN ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY AND CLEARING CONDITIONS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS WE ARE NOW IN A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. THURSDAY WE HAVE A NEW FEATURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THAT WILL AGAIN INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 75 57 77 / 30 30 10 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 75 56 77 / 20 30 10 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 57 75 57 77 / 20 30 10 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 73 52 78 / 30 20 10 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ MJB/SR

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