Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 021903
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
303 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHO SOME FLAT CUMULUS CLOUDS
DID BREAK OUT IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. MESO PAGE SHOWS A GOOD DEAL
OF NEGATIVE CAPE TO SUPPRESS THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY.
THE VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WAS LIMITED TO BODIES OF WATER FROM THE
CENTRAL VALLEY COUNTIES OF EAST TN NE INTO SW VA. I TRIED TO LIMIT
VALLEY FOG TONIGHT TO THESE AREAS...PLUS SW NC IN LINE WITH MOS
GUIDANCE. FAVORED THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MOS MINS WHERE SLIGHT DIFFS
WERE NOTED.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST GRIDS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...AS RIDGING DOMINATES AND TEMPS RISE A BIT EACH PERIOD.
THE CAPPING LOOKS WEAKER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE ERN MTNS...BUT
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE QUITE WEAK. HOWEVER...I DID
SPRAY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (SHOWERS) ALONG THE TN-NC LINE TO MESH
WITH GSP/FFC/RNK GRIDS. CONTINUED THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS IN
THOSE AREAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY
ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND SW VA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SIMILAR MOS MAXES/MINS CLOSELY FOLLOWED.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...THE RIDGE PATTERN
SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RISING HEIGHTS INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK. NOT MUCH PRESENT TO GENERATE LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD
OTHER THAN SOME OROGRAPHICS. TRIED TO GIVE ROBO-GRIDS SOME VALUE BY
SUBTRACTING PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER DURING
UNFAVORABLE PERIODS (MORNING/NIGHT) AND TRIMMING A BIT TO KEEP MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION THREAT ON THE MAJOR TERRAIN FEATURES. MAX AND
MIN TEMPS SHOULD RUN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES AHEAD OF CLIMO DUE
TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             51  80  56  81 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  49  77  54  80 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       49  78  54  80 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              43  75  49  78 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG


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