Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 010009
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
509 PM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DRY
WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:55 PM PDT TUESDAY...A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY BROUGHT A COOLER AIRMASS
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES COOLER AT THIS HOUR COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH TEMPS IN
THE 60S ACROSS MOST SITES. WINDS EASED A BIT THIS MORNING BUT THEY
ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBS
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WINDSPEEDS ARE TOPPING OUT
IN THE TEEN TO LOWER 20S WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO LOWER 30S.

COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS MAY ALLOW PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTH BAY TONIGHT. HOWEVER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED HAMPERING ANY FROST FORMATION. AREAS
SHELTERED FROM THE WIND WILL BE AT GREATEST RISK FOR ANY PATCHY
FROST.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN COOLER TEMPS
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PATCHY FROST MAY BE ONCE AGAIN BE A
CONCERN OVER SHELTERED NORTH BAY VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
GUSTY WINDS MAY HAMPER ITS FORMATION.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DISTRICT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. 850 MB TEMPS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 60S ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER
70S INLAND ON THURSDAY AND 60S TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST TO MID
TO UPPER 70S INLAND ON FRIDAY.

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE BEGINNING TO FOCUS IN ON A COMMON SOLUTION
WITH THE CHANCE OF PRECIP INCREASE FOR THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING HOWEVER AS THE MODELS
HONE IN ON A WETTER SOLUTION THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE UPDATE TO
REFLECT THE NEW THINKING. STAY TUNED IN TO THE LATEST FORECAST
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:57 PM PDT TUESDAY...DRY AND GUSTY N-NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG AND THE AREA WIND & TEMP PROFILERS ARE ALSO SHOWING DECENT
WIND LINKAGE UP THROUGH 3500-6500 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL AND NO
INVERSIONS. MODEL FORECASTS ALSO SHOW INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE JET STREAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUPPORTIVE
OF CONTINUED WIND LINKAGE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. LLWS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD
UNLESS SURFACE WINDS UNEXPECTEDLY DROP OFF APPRECIABLY SOMETIME
LATE TONIGHT OR WED MORNING. IT`S A HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST
FOR THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR STRONG AND GUSTY
WEST WINDS CONTINUES TIL 9 PM. PEAK GUSTS HAVE REACHED 35-36 KNOTS
SINCE 3 PM. WINDS MAY TAPER OFF A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING BUT
GUSTS TO 28-30 KNOTS STILL POSSIBLE 04Z-10Z. WINDS RESUME TO
NEARLY SIMILAR LEVELS EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAY OVERALL BE
A LITTLE LESS GUSTY FROM THE WEST AS A MODERATE BUT DRY EPAC
TROUGH ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY. VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS FORECASTED TONIGHT. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:12 AM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC RESULTING IN MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. LOCAL GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 40 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR NEAR THE COAST. A LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS
PRODUCING MIXED SEAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 9 PM
             GLW...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM

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