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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 101352
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
852 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A NOR`EASTER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND
WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CURRENT RADAR INTERPRETATION...BRIGHT BANDING IS DUE TO MAINLY TO
RIMED SNOW AND NOT SO MUCH SLEET. SNOWFALL RATES ARE 0.5-1.0
INCHES PER HOUR. THE INCREASING REPORT FROM KISP (13Z) WAS FOR
0.6". THINK WE`RE SEEING 10 TO 1 RATIOS AT CURRENT TIME. THE AREA
SOUTH OF MONTAUK IS LIKELY SOME MELTING.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS WITH SNOWFALL REPORTS WILL BE ISSUED AT
2 HOUR INTERVALS WITH NEW REPORTS. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE AIRPORTS
AND CENTRAL PARK DO NOT REPORT OUTSIDE OF SYNOPTIC HOURS (SIX
HOURS) PER OBSERVING PROCEDURES. WE WILL GET A 4 PM REPORT FOR THE
EVENING CLIMATE REPORTS.

AT 13Z THE 988 HPA LOW WAS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE DELAWARE BAY.
MODELS ARE UNDER-DOING THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. MOST GLOBAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS SIMILAR WITH HANDLING OF LOW TRACK.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY REST OF THE DAY AND LIKELY FALL
SLIGHTLY AS HEAVIER PCPN OCCURS.

WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE AT THIS HOUR AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY AS LOW BOMBS OUT.

AS FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WINDS STRONG WITH GUSTS DEFINITELY
REACHING 35 TO 40 MPH. THE QUESTION IS SNOW INTENSITY AND THUS
VSBYS. OVERALL FEEL CONDITIONS WILL BE MET NEAR THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS INCREASE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BANDING CONTINUES BEHIND DEPARTING LOW AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH
AND REMAIN QUITE STRONG. STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR THIS EVENING...SO
BEST CHANCE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE INTO THE EVENING. BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW LIKELY AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. OVERALL QPF OF 3/4 OF AN INCH TO 1 1/2 INCHES NEAR
THE COAST EXPECTED. BASICALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WETTER
NAM AND DRIER GFS.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-16 INCHES OUTSIDE OF WHERE ANY
MIXING WITH RAIN TAKES PLACE. FARTHER NORTH/EAST...LESSER QPF
AND/OR MIXING WITH RAIN SHOULD HOLD ACCUMULATIONS DOWN A
LITTLE...WITH 8-12 INCHES EXPECTED.

STRONG WINDS PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AS DEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW...WITH LOW PRES PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.
SO...WILL SEE CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY INLAND...WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER.

A NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALSO PREDOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH IN PLACE AND NORTHERLY FLOW.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED ECMWF AND HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND STRONG E-NE WINDS...TURNING
NW TONIGHT.

GENERALLY IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCNL VLIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY
SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR COASTAL TERMINALS OF
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KISP/KGON...SOME RAIN OR SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE
SNOW THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING BACK OVER
TO ALL SNOW. SNOW TAPERS OFF BY MIDNIGHT...THEN CIGS/VSBYS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE.

NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 25 KT GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING
BEFORE TURNING N AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH 30-35 KT GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH PASSAGE OF LOW THIS EVENING...
WINDS TURN N BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY UNCHANGED...
JFK/LGA/EWR/TEB/ISP...10-14 INCHES
BDR/GON/SWF...8-12 INCHES

SNOWFALL RATES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR
WITH THE HEAVIEST RATES RANGING FROM 2-3 INCHES/HOUR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
THU-SUN...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS EACH DAY...SUBSIDING AT NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST...AND
WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THIS MORNING AS IT TRACKS ENE...JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. E/NE WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ALL WATERS
BY LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORM FORCE
ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. WINDS TURN N/NE THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
WEAKENING BY DAYBREAK THU BEFORE DIMINISHING TO SCA CONDITIONS ON
THU AS LOW PRES SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. 50 TO 55 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
ON THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12 TO 16 FT
ON THE OCEAN AND 4 TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND LATER TODAY.

GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT.

FRI THROUGH SUNDAY COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE
TIME...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS WHERE WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS
WILL BE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. GENERALLY A NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
WILL PREDOMINATE. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MON WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT QPF EXPECTED BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
A COASTAL STORM. LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF CALLS FOR 0.75 INCH NORTH
AND 1-1.5 INCHES NEAR THE COAST...PREDOMINANTLY SNOW. NO FLOODING
ISSUES EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE MELTING RE-FREEZING IN THE SNOW
PACK AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE WITH
THIS STORM.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND WAVES WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY THU MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE DURING THE EVE HIGH TIDE...WHEN FOR MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING...3.5 TO 4 FT DEPARTURES ARE NEEDED...WHILE 2.5
TO 3 FT DEPARTURES ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. GFS
SURGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME LOCATIONS SUCH AS KINGS POINT
AND BRIDGEPORT WILL HAVE THE NEAR 3 FT DEPARTURES...WITH COASTAL
FLOODING POSSIBLE. OTHER LOCATIONS FALL ABOUT AT LEAST 0.5 FT
SHORT OF WATER LEVELS NEEDED FOR COASTAL FLOODING. SURGE GUIDANCE
FROM STEVENS INSTITUTE IS NOT HAS HIGH WITH BRIDGEPORT AND KINGS
POINT WATER LEVELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THE
MOMENT TO WARRANT A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. HOWEVER...IF LOW
PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS MORE THAN WHAT IS BEING PREDICTED...A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED.

POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 4 TO 5 FT MAY BE NOTED DURING THE TIMES
OF LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN LOW PRESSURE IS RAPIDLY
DEEPENING...BUT THESE DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 3 FT AS
TIDES APPROACH ASTRONOMICAL HIGHS AND WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE
N/NW. THIS SHOULD LIMIT COASTAL FLOODING TO MINOR LEVELS. HIGH WAVE
ACTION ON THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF LI SOUND WILL LIKELY EXACERBATE
THE MINOR FLOODING. WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS 2ND PERIOD ADVISORY TO
LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFT MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE.

TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 2 TO 2 1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR AND 3 TO 4 FT
FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EARLY THU MORNING. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURS MORN ON THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS DUE TO HIGH
WAVE ACTION PREVENTING DRAINAGE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>081.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>071.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ005-006-011.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002>004.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...