Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 250531 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 131 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... UPDATE PRIMARILY FOR MARINE HEADLINES. THE FCST IS ON TRACK. UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT. FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD IMPACT TEMPS. CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS EXPECTED...SO FEEL FREEZE WARNING IS STILL WARRANTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE. EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... OVER THE NEXT DAY...WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BE SLOW TO WORK OFFSHORE...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS. IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH W/NW FLOW IN THE MORNING. THE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFT DUE TO A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL SEABREEZES MAY DEVELOP IF THE FLOW WEAKENS ENOUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE AT KJFK AND KBDR. WINDS THEN VEER AROUND TO THE N LATE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED... .SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. .MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS. .TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR. && .MARINE... SCA FOR THE PROTECTED WATERS CANCELLED WITH WINDS BLW 25 KT. THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 6 AM ON THE OCEAN. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. && .FIRE WEATHER... MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND 1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25 NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33 BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34 CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36 LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38 KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36 ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31 *AND PREVIOUS YEARS && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012. NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070- 078>081. NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004- 103>105-107. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24/PW NEAR TERM...JMC/JC/PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...DW MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...24/PW CLIMATE...

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