Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 021954 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 354 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING...THEN WILL REDEVELOP FARTHER INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY PASS TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... RADAR SHOWS ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AND INTERIOR NORTHERN NJ WEST OF SEA BREEZE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE CONVERGENCE/LIFT...THEN MENTION ONLY ISOLD SPRINKLES A LITTLE FARTHER EAST INTO THIS EVENING PER HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE NYC URBAN HEAT ISLAND...INTO THE 40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND THE MID/UPPER 30S IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS AND POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SPOTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON SUNDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...REDEVELOPMENT OF THERMAL TROUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FARTHER INLAND. EXPECT WARMER TEMPS ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S FROM NYC NORTH/WEST...BUT COASTAL SECTIONS IN SEA BREEZE REGIME SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID AND UPPER 60S...WITH TEMPS FALLING DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AFTER REACHING THEIR PEAK AT OR JUST AFTER MIDDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE NOT AS COOL...WITH 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AND 40S CONFINED TO ERN LONG ISLAND...MOST OF SRN CT AND THE VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC. BACKED OFF ON ISOLD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE FAR NRN TIER OF ZONES...AS THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE WEAKER AND FARTHER INLAND...AND AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER RIDGING TO START THE WEEK WILL TRANSITION TO A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH THE REGION IN BETWEEN A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OFF THE SE US COAST FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS ON MONDAY LIKELY INTO THE LOWER 80S NYC/NJ METRO AND INTERIOR AND MID 70S TO THE COAST. A COLD FRONT PRESSES ON THE REGION TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC. INCREASING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CT/LOWER HUD. BUT HIGHS FARTHER SOUTH COULD STILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S FOR COAST AND AROUND 80 NYC/NJ METRO. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS NOT STRONG...MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTS RUNNING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA ARE WARRANTED. INSTABILITY/WIND/SHEAR FIELDS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. WITH THE FRONT PARALLELING THE UPPER FLOW TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHRA TUE NIGHT. WITH TROUGHING DEEPENING INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH WITH GRADUAL DRYING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH A CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WED AND THU...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN ABOVE SEASONABLE. MODELS SIGNALING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRI...WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE BASED ON LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW TO THE NE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN TEMPS FALLING TO BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST ON FRI AND POSSIBLY SAT. OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR RIDGING TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE CANADIAN LOW SLIDES OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD SPELL AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WEAK...BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS HAVE INCREASED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SEA BREEZE FRONT. SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT FOR THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. WIND DIR SHOULD BE FROM THE S-SE TIL ABOUT 00Z...THEN WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .SUNDAY-MON NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON. .TUE-TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS. .WED...LOW CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN ANY SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. .THU...VFR. && .MARINE... OCEAN SWELLS CONTINUE TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT...WITH RELATIVELY SHORT PD...SO HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS W OF MORICHES INLET FOR TONIGHT. UPWARD TREND HAS NOT YET BEGUN AT 44017 WITH SEA REMAINING JUST SHY OF 4 FT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED WATERS FARTHER E YET. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 5 FT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT COULD LINGER OVER THE OCEAN WATERS E OF MORICHES INLET ON TUE. && .HYDROLOGY... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/NV NEAR TERM...GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...BC MARINE...GOODMAN/NV HYDROLOGY...NV

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