Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 281024 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 624 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES EACH DAY. LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... STACKED LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LOW. ONCE AGAIN AS WE HAVE SEEN...A WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TODAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A FEW MORE CLOUDS MAY BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...CLOSER TO THE LOW. WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CLOSED LOW TO THE EAST FINALLY LOOKS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER WEDNESDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THESE OVERALL FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE...NW FLOW PERSISTS AS AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY PER NCEP AND GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. NW WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT A RANGE OF TEMPS...WITH LOWS AROUND 50 IN NYC...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. MOS BLEND LOOKS REASONABLE. ON WEDNESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGH THE 60S...AND APPROACH OR EXCEED 70...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE WATER. NW FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF COAST AND TRACKS TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LOW FROM TRACKING TOO FAR TO THE NORTH AS IT TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTH OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME AS SOME WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION COULD IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW...CAN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S ON THURSDAY AND IN THE 50S ON FRIDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. WITH RISING HEIGHTS...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST...AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO MODERATE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEAK COLD FRONT THEN TRIES TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING...TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP THROUGH THE 60S AND BACK INTO THE 70S. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES MAGNETIC MUCH OF THE TIME. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS OF 10-20 KT INITIALLY...GUSTING MORE FREQUENTLY THIS MORNING TO NEAR 25 KT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTS OVERALL CONTAIN THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST...AS THE TIMING OBSERVED COULD VARY A FEW HOURS FROM FORECAST. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST TODAY. THE START/END TIME OF GUSTS COULD VARY +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST TODAY. THE START/END TIME OF GUSTS COULD VARY +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST TODAY. THE START/END TIME OF GUSTS COULD VARY +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST TODAY. THE START/END TIME OF GUSTS COULD VARY +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST TODAY. THE START/END TIME OF GUSTS COULD VARY +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST TODAY. THE START/END TIME OF GUSTS COULD VARY +/- 1 TO 2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. .THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY SHRA. NE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. .FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY SHRA. NE-N WINDS G20-30KT POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... NW FLOW CONTINUES AS LOW PRESSURE WOBBLES WELL TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS. EXPECT NEARSHORE GUSTS TO REACH 25 KTS THIS MORNING...SO WILL POST SCA PER SURROUNDING OFFICE COLLABORATION. OVER THE OPEN WATERS AWAY FROM LAND...COOLER TEMPS SHOULD PREVENT WINDS FROM GUSTING TO 25 KTS. WINDS LOOK TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS. A WIND SHIFT IN SPOTS IS FORECAST AS ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WED AFTERNOON. SEAS REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG WITH SCA LEVEL WINDS/WAVES LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND SCA WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS. GRADIENT SLACKENS FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT LINGERING SWELLS WILL KEEP OCEAN SEAS ABOVE SCA LEVELS. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON WHEN RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...JM MARINE...BC/PW FIRE WEATHER...PW HYDROLOGY...BC/PW

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