Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 010219 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1019 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOLLOWS ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL END IN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY OVERNIGHT...A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE VICINITY OF NYC...TO 25-30 ELSEWHERE. SOME LOWER 20S IN THE VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF THE CITY ARE POSSIBLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S... WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE SITUATED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A RETURN SW FLOW THEN SETS UP. THESE SW WINDS OFF THE COLD WATERS FOR EASTERN ZONES WILL LIMIT MIXING...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE WEAKENING...WESTERN ZONES ARE FORECAST TO MIX UP TO AROUND 900MB. BASED ON THE AFTN FCST TEMP AT THIS LEVEL...HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THESE AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY THE OCEAN/SOUND INFLUENCES. LOOKS LIKE THE SW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SEA BREEZE PUSHING THROUGH NE NJ...SO EXPECTING HIGHS UP TO THE MID 60S HERE. CLOUDS THEN THICKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHC SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY. BASED ON FCST MUCAPES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY DURING FRIDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD LASTING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH. ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A CHC OF THUNDER. CLOUDS/RAIN AND LIMITED MIXING...AS WELL AS A WIND FLOW OFF THE WATERS FOR SOME AREAS...SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING. STILL...LOOKS LIKE HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT TRIES TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH...BUT MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ZONAL. THE FRONT POTENTIALLY WASHES OUT OR BECOMES STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY AT SOME POINT LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE PRIMARILY RAIN...BUT THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES PROBABLY SEE A MIX OR RAIN AND SNOW LATE AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHT CHC POPS REMAIN FOR MONDAY WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. MODELS THEN SHOW OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PUSHING EAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN...EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRES DEPARTS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIP HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...WITH CONDS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDS ON WED. N WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS...SHIFTING TO THE NW 10-15 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT...BUT THEN DEVELOP TO 15-20 KT ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. .THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. .SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE. .SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
HAVE KEPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE TO MARGINAL LEVELS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE EASTERN TWO OCEAN ZONES CONTINUES THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WINDS PICK UP ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN SW FLOW. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH EITHER WINDS OR SEAS...OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO. THIS WOULD START THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SWELL LINGERS. EVEN ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT PASSAGE COULD BRING GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AS FOR THE OTHER WATERS. IT APPEARS THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE PRIMARILY SUB-SCA CONDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE A SCA MIGHT BE NECESSARY FOR SOME SPOTS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JC NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...NV MARINE...BC/JC/DS HYDROLOGY...BC/JC/DS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.