Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 201704 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 104 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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HEAVIEST RAINS NOW MOVING UP INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING RAINFALL TO TAPER TO INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS...WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. WARM FRONT APPROACHES...BUT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. THUS 70S ARE CONFINED TO CENTRAL NJ. LAVE LOWERED THE TEMP FCST SOME MORE WITH NEAR 60 FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN ENDS. LOWER 50S FOR S. CT AND MID 50S ON LONG ISLAND WHERE RAIN TAKES LONGER TO TAPER OFF.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE/TRIPLE POINT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH. ASSOCIATED UPWARD FORCING AND MOISTURE BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAKES IT THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...AND WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH PLUS MAYBE SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM A JET STREAK...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED AS HIGH DEW POINT AIR (NEAR 60) MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 40S FOR LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT AS FLOW VEERS TO MORE SSE. NARRE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FOG CURRENTLY OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA. IT MOVES IT OVER LONG ISLAND BY 00Z. WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY. FOR TUESDAY...ONLY LOW CHANCES OF A LINGERING SHOWER EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH STRONGER LIFT GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS THROUGH...SO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. A WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWS FOR MIXING TO AT LEAST 850 MB. WITH AFTN TEMPS 4-5C AT THIS LEVEL...SIDED WITH THE WARMER NAM MOS FOR HIGHS.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND UPPER TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO THURSDAY. IT SHOULD NOT RAIN ALL THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. CONDS BEGIN TO DRY OUT...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHORTWAVES MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY/FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS MODELS DIVERGE AS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. GFS TAKES LOW PRES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE 70/40 BENCHMARK DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. PCPN OVERSPREADS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW MUCH WEAKER AND SLOWER...AND HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. WPC IS FOLLOWING THIS TRACK...AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND GO WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. SW FLOW WILL USHER A MILD AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY... ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE AREA. TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL THEN BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHER PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN TO IFR THROUGH 18Z...THEN LIFR AFT 21Z IN FOG UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT. WINDS...E 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KT 12Z-18Z...THEN BECOMING SE AND DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFT 21Z. SE TO S LLWS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH 2000 FT WINDS OF 50 TO 60 KT...MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z FROM W TO E. POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS ARND 1/2 MI AREA WIDE 21Z MON - 06Z TUE. CONVECTION...HIGHEST CHANCE WEST OF NYC AFT 21Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND AND GUST FORECAST WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE LLWS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFT 21Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFT 21Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AND ISOLD TSTM AFT 21Z. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS RED...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY LESS THAN 4SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AND ISOLD TSTM AFT 21Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFT 21Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFT 21Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MONDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER. AN ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE 00Z TO 03Z. .TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. W-SW WINDS GUSTS 15-20KT POSSIBLE. .TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. .WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... GALE WARNINGS WILL LOWER TO SCA THIS AFTN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FEET. WINDS SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WELL. HAVE THEREFORE EXTENDED SCA ON THE OCEAN THRU TUES AFTN. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. 25 KT WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN WATERS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS INTO THURSDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. && .HYDROLOGY... STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE/SMALL STREAMS...PRIMARILY THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-338-340- 345-350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS NEAR TERM...TONGUE SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...BC MARINE...TONGUE HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS

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